Calculate the value of NFL draft picks using the classic Jimmy Johnson model. Enter overall pick numbers to determine their worth, sum multiple picks, or evaluate trades.
Calculate Value of Multiple Picks
Trade Evaluator
Team A Gives (Picks):
Team B Gives (Picks):
How to Use the NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator
- Select Value Chart:
- Choose your preferred draft pick value model from the dropdown (e.g., “Jimmy Johnson Model”, “Rich Hill Model”). Different charts offer varying perspectives on pick values. The Jimmy Johnson model is a classic baseline.
- Calculate Value of Multiple Picks:
- In the “Calculate Value of Multiple Picks” section, enter overall draft pick numbers into the input field, separated by commas (e.g.,
1, 22, 55). - Click “Calculate Total Value”.
- The calculator will display the total combined point value of the entered picks according to the selected chart. A breakdown of each pick’s individual value will also be shown.
- Click “Clear Picks” to reset this section.
- In the “Calculate Value of Multiple Picks” section, enter overall draft pick numbers into the input field, separated by commas (e.g.,
- Evaluate Trades:
- In the “Trade Evaluator” section, there are two sides: “Team A Gives” and “Team B Gives”.
- For each team, enter the overall draft pick numbers they are offering in the trade, separated by commas.
- Click “Evaluate Trade”.
- The calculator will display the total point value for each side of the trade.
- An assessment of which side is “winning” the trade based purely on the selected value chart will be provided. Remember, real trades involve many factors beyond point values!
- Individual pick values for each side are also shown for transparency.
- Click “Clear Trade” to reset this section.
- Input Requirements:
- Picks should be entered as positive integers representing their overall draft position (e.g., 1 for the first overall pick).
- Most charts cover picks up to around 224-262 (the typical end of a 7-round draft). Values for picks beyond the chart’s range may be estimated as 0 or a nominal value.
- Error Messages: If your input is invalid (e.g., non-numeric entries, negative numbers), an error message will appear to guide you.
Important Note: Draft pick value charts are tools to provide a quantitative baseline. Actual trade negotiations involve team needs, player availability, market dynamics, and subjective evaluations. This calculator helps understand the “book value” of picks.
Decoding the Draft: A Deep Dive into NFL Pick Values and Strategy
The Million-Dollar Question: What’s an NFL Draft Pick *Really* Worth?
Every spring, the NFL Draft captivates football fans worldwide. It’s a spectacle of hope, strategy, and high-stakes decisions as teams select the next generation of talent. But behind the televised handshakes and jersey presentations lies a complex economy of value. What makes the 1st overall pick astronomically more valuable than the 100th? And how do teams even begin to quantify this difference when negotiating trades? This is where the concept of NFL Draft Pick Value comes into play.
At its core, a draft pick’s value is an attempt to assign a numerical worth to the opportunity it represents. This isn’t just about the player eventually selected; it’s about the potential, the contract control, and the strategic asset the pick itself embodies. For general managers and front office personnel, understanding these values is like speaking a common language, crucial for navigating the intricate dance of draft-day trades and long-term roster building.
A Page from History: The Genesis of Draft Value Charts
The idea of systematically valuing draft picks isn’t new. While teams have always had intuitive notions of pick worth, the Dallas Cowboys, under coach Jimmy Johnson and owner Jerry Jones in the early 1990s, are famously credited with popularizing a formal trade value chart. This chart, often simply called the “Jimmy Johnson chart” or “The Dallas Chart,” assigned a point value to each pick, with the first overall pick receiving the highest value (typically 3000 points) and subsequent picks diminishing in value.
Why did they do it? The Cowboys, aiming to rebuild their dynasty, found themselves with a plethora of picks. They needed a consistent framework to evaluate trade offers and make strategic moves, like the famous Herschel Walker trade that netted them a king’s ransom of picks. The chart provided an objective baseline, helping them to “win” trades by accumulating more “points” than they gave away. Though decades old, Johnson’s original framework remains a surprisingly resilient reference point in many NFL circles, a testament to its foundational logic.
Are All Charts Created Equal? The Evolution of Value Models
While the Jimmy Johnson chart is the OG, it’s not the only game in town. Over the years, analysts, statisticians, and even teams themselves have developed alternative models. Some popular ones include:
- Rich Hill Chart: Developed by Rich Hill (formerly of Pats Pulpit), this model is based on the historical Approximate Value (AV) produced by players selected at each draft slot. It tends to value top picks even higher than the Johnson chart and shows a steeper drop-off.
- Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart: Created by Brad Spielberger (Pro Football Focus) and Jason Fitzgerald (Over The Cap), this model incorporates modern contract data and rookie wage scales, offering a more contemporary financial perspective on pick value.
- Harvard Trade Chart: Stemming from academic research, this chart uses a different mathematical approach, often resulting in a flatter value curve, especially in the middle rounds.
Each chart has its own methodology and underlying assumptions, leading to different valuations. Some might be better for historical comparisons, others for current market realities. Our calculator allows you to switch between some of these models to see how valuations can change.
The Mechanics: How Are These Values Used in the Real World?
Draft pick value charts serve multiple purposes for NFL teams:
- Trade Evaluation: This is the most common application. When Team A wants to trade up to Team B’s spot, they’ll consult their charts. If Team B’s pick is worth 1000 points, Team A will try to offer a package of their own picks that sum to at least 1000 points, often needing to “overpay” slightly to incentivize Team B. Our calculator’s trade evaluator simulates this basic comparison.
- Strategic Planning: Teams use these values to assess their overall “draft capital.” A team with many high-value picks has more flexibility to move around the draft board or acquire established players via trade. Conversely, a team low on draft capital might be more inclined to trade down and accumulate more picks.
- Assessing Past Drafts: Retrospectively, charts can be used to analyze whether a team got good “value” in their draft-day trades, though the ultimate success is always determined by the players selected.
- Inter-Draft Comparisons: Sometimes, teams trade picks from future drafts. Value charts, with some adjustments for the uncertainty of future pick positions, can help gauge these cross-year trades.
Imagine a scenario: The #10 pick (worth, say, 1300 points on the JJ chart) is on the clock. A team at #20 (850 points) desperately wants a player they think will be gone by their turn. They might offer their #20 pick, their #55 pick (350 points), and a future 3rd rounder (approx. 100-150 points) to move up. The team at #10 would weigh this package (850 + 350 + ~125 = 1325 points) against the value of staying put or other offers.
The Human Element: Beyond the Numbers
It’s crucial to remember that these charts are guides, not gospel. They provide an objective starting point, but the art of the deal involves much more:
- Player-Specific Demand: If multiple teams are vying for the same player or pick, the “price” can skyrocket beyond chart values. A “quarterback tax” is often observed, where moving up for a top QB prospect costs more than the chart suggests.
- Team Needs & Surplus: A team loaded at one position might be more willing to trade down from a spot where a top player at that position is available, seeking to fill other needs.
- Positional Value: Picks that could land a franchise quarterback, left tackle, or edge rusher are often inherently more valuable in practice than a pick for a less impactful position, even if their chart values are similar.
- The “Eye Test” and Scouting: Ultimately, teams make picks based on their evaluation of individual players. If a GM is convinced a player available at their current spot is a future Hall of Famer, no amount of trade value points offered will likely persuade them to move down.
Think of draft value charts like a Kelley Blue Book for cars. It gives you a baseline price, but the actual transaction depends on mileage, condition, demand, and negotiation skills.
Visualizing Value: The Power of Draft Charts (The Graphic Kind!)
While our calculator provides numerical outputs, in the real world of NFL “war rooms,” visual representations of draft capital are incredibly powerful. Teams often use large magnetic boards or digital displays showing the entire draft, with pick values (or tiers of value) color-coded. This allows for quick assessment of trade scenarios and strategic opportunities.
Imagine a bar chart where the height of each bar represents the point value of a pick. Seeing your team’s collection of tall bars (high-value picks) versus short bars (low-value picks) instantly communicates your draft power. When considering a trade, you could visually see the “value gap” you need to close. Advanced analytics departments even use sophisticated software to model trade probabilities and expected player outcomes based on pick values, often presented in graphical dashboards. While this calculator uses simple bars for illustration, the principle of visualizing complex data for better decision-making is paramount in modern sports analytics.
“The draft is an inexact science. The charts help make it a little less inexact, but you still have to hit on the players.” – A sentiment often echoed by NFL executives.
Conclusion: Your Compass in the NFL Draft Wilderness
The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator is more than just a number cruncher. It’s a window into the strategic thinking that shapes NFL rosters. By understanding the principles behind pick valuation, fans and aspiring analysts can gain a deeper appreciation for the chess match that unfolds on draft day. Whether you’re mocking your team’s dream draft, evaluating a blockbuster trade, or just curious about the hidden economy of the NFL, this tool offers a valuable perspective.
Remember to use it as one piece of the puzzle. Combine the quantitative insights from value charts with qualitative factors like player talent, team needs, and the unpredictable nature of the draft itself. Happy drafting, and may the value be ever in your favor!